Why a Cooling Market Could Be the Best Time to Buy a Home in Canada

Christine MacPherson • October 15, 2025

Why a Cooling Market Could Be the Best Time to Buy a Home in Canada

When I met with a couple recently, they told me they were sitting on the sidelines waiting for “the right time” to buy. They had assumed they missed their chance when prices surged a few years ago. The truth? The window isn’t closed. In fact, with today’s shifting market, new opportunities are opening up for buyers.



Across Canada, the housing market is entering a cooler, more balanced phase. That’s not bad news — it can actually be a good thing for anyone looking to purchase a home.

The Canadian housing market is adjusting

Over the last few years, Canadians have seen some of the fastest price growth in history. Now, that growth is slowing down. National forecasts are predicting a slight decline in average home prices this year — around 2% in many regions.


What does that mean for you? In many cities, buyers are regaining negotiating power. Homes are staying on the market longer, price reductions are becoming more common, and sellers are more open to offering incentives like covering closing costs or offering flexible possession dates.


This shift isn’t a “crash.” It’s a reset — and it creates room for thoughtful buyers to step in.


Opportunities for buyers in a cooling market

  1. More negotiating power
    In competitive years, buyers often had to bid above asking. Today, you’re more likely to secure a home at or even below list price.
  2. Wider selection
    With homes staying on the market longer, you don’t have to rush decisions. You can compare more properties and find the one that truly fits your needs.
  3. Flexibility from sellers
    Whether it’s getting repairs done before closing, asking for certain upgrades, or choosing your move-in date, sellers are more open to working with buyers.
  4. Long-term value potential
    Cooler conditions now can set the stage for steady, sustainable growth in the future — a healthier investment environment.


A story of timing and patience


Take for example a young buyer who sold their condo in a busy urban market earlier this year. Instead of waiting indefinitely for the “perfect time,” they used today’s balanced market to make a move. With fewer bidding wars, they negotiated a purchase at 5% below asking. The home needed minor updates, but the savings left them with enough room in their budget to handle those upgrades without stress.

That’s what a balanced market makes possible — opportunities that don’t exist when competition is at its peak.


Tips for buyers right now

Here are actionable strategies in this cooling environment:

  • Get pre-approved early: Sellers value certainty. Being pre-approved can make your offer stronger, even in a slower market.
  • Look beyond the headline numbers: A national average doesn’t always reflect what’s happening in your city. Work with a broker who knows your local market.
  • Target homes with longer listing times: Properties that have been on the market for weeks or months are often more negotiable.
  • Think about your timeline: If you plan to hold a property for five to ten years, short-term price fluctuations matter less.
  • Negotiate more than just price: Ask about upgrades, appliances, closing credits, or flexible terms.


The bottom line

Canada’s market is shifting. Instead of seeing this as a setback, think of it as a chance to buy in a calmer, more balanced environment. If you’ve been waiting, this could be your opportunity to secure the right home without the pressure of a bidding war.

If you’d like help reviewing your options, running the numbers, and finding opportunities in your local market, I’d be happy to walk you through it.

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By Christine MacPherson April 6, 2026
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The bigger story is that global pressure can quickly change where mortgage rates go next, even when nothing dramatic has changed in your own neighbourhood. Why a war far from Canada can affect your mortgage Canada does not set mortgage rates in a bubble. The Bank of Canada said the conflict has driven sharp increases in global oil and natural gas prices, and that it could also disrupt the movement of other commodities, including fertilizer, through transportation bottlenecks linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Governor Tiff Macklem added that while Canada is not hit directly in the same way as some regions, reduced global supply still means higher global prices. That is the kind of pressure that can make inflation harder to control. When inflation risks rise, central banks get cautious. That does not always mean an immediate rate hike, but it can mean fewer cuts, longer holds, or tougher language. That is exactly why this latest Bank of Canada announcement matters. The Bank held, but it also signaled that the outlook is more uncertain and that it is prepared to respond as conditions evolve. What this means for variable mortgage rates If you have a variable rate mortgage, the Bank of Canada is still the main thing to watch. Variable rates in Canada are closely tied to lender prime rates, and prime typically moves when the Bank changes its overnight rate. As of March 27, 2026, Canada’s prime rate is 4.45 percent, and Ratehub notes that variable mortgage rates have remained stable following last week’s rate hold. So, for now, borrowers with variable rates have not seen a fresh jump just because of the war. But the risk has changed. If global conflict keeps energy prices elevated and inflation proves harder to cool, future cuts may be delayed. In plain English, this means some borrowers who were hoping for lower payments later this year may need to prepare for a longer period of higher borrowing costs than expected. That is not a certainty, but it is a reasonable takeaway from the Bank’s current tone. Variable rate borrowers should focus on payment room If you are in a variable rate mortgage right now, this is a good time to review your budget honestly. Ask yourself whether your payment still feels comfortable if rates stay where they are for longer. A lot of borrowers were planning around future relief. The new global backdrop is a reminder that relief can get delayed very quickly. What this means for fixed mortgage rates Fixed rates are a little different. They are not priced directly off the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. TD explains that fixed mortgage rates are based on the bond market, with Government of Canada bond yields used as a benchmark. Ratehub now says the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the shrinking likelihood of central bank cuts are pushing bond yields higher, and that fixed mortgage rates increased significantly this week. That distinction is important. Even if the Bank of Canada does nothing at its next meeting, fixed rates can still move. If investors keep pricing in higher inflation risk, lenders can raise fixed mortgage pricing before the Bank ever changes its policy rate. For buyers and renewing homeowners in Edmonton, that means waiting can carry a real cost. What buyers and homeowners in Edmonton should do now I think this is a planning market, not a panic market. The latest data does not say every borrower should rush into the same product. It does say that global events are now part of the mortgage conversation again, and ignoring them is a mistake. If you are buying, get pre approved and secure a rate hold while you shop. Ratehub notes that current pricing can often be held for up to 120 days, which can be valuable in a market where fixed rates are moving. If you are renewing, compare your options early instead of waiting for the lender’s first offer. If you are refinancing, think beyond rate alone and look at cash flow, penalty costs, and how much payment certainty matters to you right now.  The bottom line The Bank of Canada did not raise rates in March. But the global pressure behind mortgage rates is clearly building. War driven energy shocks can feed inflation. Inflation pressure can keep central banks cautious. Cautious central banks and rising bond yields can keep mortgage costs higher for longer. That is the chain Canadians need to understand right now. If you want to talk through your options in Edmonton, I am happy to help you compare fixed and variable strategies based on your timeline, budget, and risk comfort. Call 403-968-2784 or email christine@flaremortgagegroup.com to start the conversation.
By Christine MacPherson February 23, 2026
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